Updated on Thursday 04 June 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 106180 (+1031) 1831821 (+20801) 463868 (+5637) 1261773 (+14133)
United Kingdom 39452 (+325) 279392 (+1656) 1224 (+3) 238716 (+1328)
Italy 33530 (+55) 233515 (+318) 160092 (+1737) 39893 (-1474)
Brazil 31199 (+1262) 555383 (+28936) 223638 (+12558) 300546 (+15116)
France 28943 (+107) 188450 (-898) 68930 (+372) 90577 (-1377)
Spain 27127 (+0) 239932 (+294) 150376 (+0) 62429 (+294)
Mexico 10637 (+470) 97326 (+3891) 69749 (+2784) 16940 (+637)
Belgium 9505 (+19) 58615 (+98) 15934 (+15) 33176 (+64)
Germany 8563 (+8) 183879 (+285) 166609 (+977) 8707 (-700)
Iran 7942 (+64) 157562 (+3117) 123077 (+2073) 26543 (+980)
Canada 7476 (+72) 93959 (+671) 50725 (+634) 35758 (-35)
Netherlands 5986 (+5) 46852 (+103) 180 (+1) 40686 (+97)
India 5829 (+221) 207191 (+8821) 100285 (+4531) 101077 (+4069)
Russia 5031 (+182) 423186 (+8858) 186602 (+11088) 231553 (-2412)
China 4638 (+0) 84161 (+7) 79400 (+2) 123 (+5)
Peru 4634 (+0) 170039 (+0) 69257 (+750) 96148 (-750)
Turkey 4585 (+22) 165555 (+786) 129921 (+974) 31049 (-210)
Sweden 4468 (+65) 38589 (+775) 0 (-4971) 34121 (+5681)
Ecuador 3438 (+80) 40414 (+1316) 20019 (+427) 16957 (+809)
Switzerland 1920 (+0) 30874 (+3) 28500 (+0) 454 (+3)
Indonesia 1663 (+22) 27549 (+609) 7935 (+298) 17951 (+289)
Ireland 1658 (+8) 25066 (+4) 22089 (+0) 1319 (-4)
Pakistan 1621 (+78) 76398 (+3938) 27110 (+1027) 47667 (+2833)
Portugal 1436 (+12) 32895 (+195) 19869 (+317) 11590 (-134)
Romania 1288 (+12) 19517 (+119) 13526 (+100) 4703 (+7)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 375611 (+4706) 6294076 (+112378) 2650127 (+33516)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 372873 ( +2389) 6304304 ( +85651) 2730518 ( +61921)
Thu 04 June 2020 375122 ( +2249) 6387421 ( +83117) 2791107 ( +60589)
Fri 05 June 2020 377237 ( +2114) 6467910 ( +80489) 2850196 ( +59089)
Sat 06 June 2020 379221 ( +1985) 6545696 ( +77786) 2907634 ( +57438)
Sun 07 June 2020 381082 ( +1860) 6620723 ( +75026) 2963289 ( +55655)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 4638 (+0) 84161 (+7) 79400 (+2)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84079 ( +0) 78361 ( +0)
Thu 04 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84080 ( +0) 78361 ( +0)
Fri 05 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84080 ( +0) 78361 ( +0)
Sat 06 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84080 ( +0) 78361 ( +0)
Sun 07 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84080 ( +0) 78361 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 27127 (+0) 239932 (+294) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 27687 ( +7) 236274 ( +101) 155898 ( +439)
Thu 04 June 2020 27693 ( +7) 236366 ( +91) 156310 ( +413)
Fri 05 June 2020 27699 ( +6) 236448 ( +83) 156698 ( +388)
Sat 06 June 2020 27704 ( +5) 236524 ( +75) 157062 ( +364)
Sun 07 June 2020 27709 ( +5) 236592 ( +68) 157404 ( +342)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 33530 (+55) 233515 (+318) 160092 (+1737)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 33214 ( +32) 231234 ( +131) 159298 ( +1408)
Thu 04 June 2020 33243 ( +30) 231353 ( +120) 160638 ( +1340)
Fri 05 June 2020 33271 ( +27) 231462 ( +109) 161912 ( +1274)
Sat 06 June 2020 33295 ( +25) 231562 ( +100) 163121 ( +1210)
Sun 07 June 2020 33318 ( +23) 231653 ( +91) 164269 ( +1148)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 39452 (+325) 279392 (+1656) 1224 (+3)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 38715 ( +107) 271094 ( +726) 1535 ( +38)
Thu 04 June 2020 38813 ( +98) 271763 ( +669) 1574 ( +39)
Fri 05 June 2020 38902 ( +90) 272380 ( +617) 1614 ( +40)
Sat 06 June 2020 38984 ( +82) 272949 ( +569) 1656 ( +41)
Sun 07 June 2020 39059 ( +75) 273473 ( +524) 1698 ( +43)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 106180 (+1031) 1831821 (+20801) 463868 (+5637)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 105015 ( +459) 1808653 ( +11713) 467567 ( +8521)
Thu 04 June 2020 105436 ( +422) 1819651 ( +10998) 475504 ( +7937)
Fri 05 June 2020 105824 ( +387) 1829961 ( +10311) 482875 ( +7370)
Sat 06 June 2020 106179 ( +356) 1839615 ( +9653) 489698 ( +6824)
Sun 07 June 2020 106505 ( +326) 1848641 ( +9026) 495999 ( +6301)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 28943 (+107) 188450 (-898) 68930 (+372)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 27849 ( +5) 182270 ( +22) 68476 ( +206)
Thu 04 June 2020 27853 ( +4) 182289 ( +19) 68667 ( +190)
Fri 05 June 2020 27857 ( +4) 182306 ( +17) 68842 ( +175)
Sat 06 June 2020 27860 ( +3) 182321 ( +15) 69004 ( +162)
Sun 07 June 2020 27863 ( +3) 182334 ( +13) 69152 ( +149)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 8563 (+8) 183879 (+285) 166609 (+977)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 8498 ( +10) 181987 ( +116) 164437 ( +217)
Thu 04 June 2020 8507 ( +9) 182092 ( +106) 164632 ( +195)
Fri 05 June 2020 8515 ( +8) 182189 ( +96) 164808 ( +176)
Sat 06 June 2020 8523 ( +8) 182276 ( +88) 164966 ( +158)
Sun 07 June 2020 8530 ( +7) 182356 ( +80) 165108 ( +142)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 5986 (+5) 46852 (+103) 180 (+1)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 5917 ( +4) 45861 ( +29) 240 ( +7)
Thu 04 June 2020 5920 ( +4) 45888 ( +26) 247 ( +7)
Fri 05 June 2020 5924 ( +3) 45911 ( +24) 254 ( +7)
Sat 06 June 2020 5927 ( +3) 45933 ( +21) 261 ( +8)
Sun 07 June 2020 5929 ( +3) 45952 ( +19) 269 ( +8)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 9505 (+19) 58615 (+98) 15934 (+15)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 9171 ( +2) 56490 ( +23) 15761 ( +30)
Thu 04 June 2020 9173 ( +2) 56511 ( +21) 15789 ( +27)
Fri 05 June 2020 9175 ( +2) 56529 ( +19) 15813 ( +25)
Sat 06 June 2020 9177 ( +2) 56546 ( +17) 15835 ( +22)
Sun 07 June 2020 9178 ( +1) 56561 ( +15) 15856 ( +20)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 4468 (+65) 38589 (+775) 0 (-4971)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 4466 ( +30) 38551 ( +410) 4817 ( +0)
Thu 04 June 2020 4493 ( +28) 38946 ( +395) 4817 ( +0)
Fri 05 June 2020 4519 ( +26) 39326 ( +380) 4817 ( +0)
Sat 06 June 2020 4543 ( +24) 39690 ( +364) 4817 ( +0)
Sun 07 June 2020 4565 ( +22) 40039 ( +349) 4817 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 1092 (+18) 24395 (+230) 11726 (+277)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 1078 ( +5) 23257 ( +149) 11452 ( +145)
Thu 04 June 2020 1083 ( +4) 23398 ( +141) 11588 ( +136)
Fri 05 June 2020 1087 ( +4) 23531 ( +133) 11714 ( +127)
Sat 06 June 2020 1090 ( +4) 23657 ( +126) 11833 ( +118)
Sun 07 June 2020 1094 ( +3) 23776 ( +119) 11943 ( +110)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 1920 (+0) 30874 (+3) 28500 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 1910 ( +0) 30620 ( +2) 28242 ( +11)
Thu 04 June 2020 1910 ( +0) 30622 ( +1) 28251 ( +10)
Fri 05 June 2020 1911 ( +0) 30623 ( +1) 28260 ( +9)
Sat 06 June 2020 1911 ( +0) 30624 ( +1) 28267 ( +7)
Sun 07 June 2020 1911 ( +0) 30625 ( +1) 28274 ( +7)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 31199 (+1262) 555383 (+28936) 223638 (+12558)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 31805 ( +813) 576545 ( +23067) 232098 ( +9156)
Thu 04 June 2020 32593 ( +788) 599789 ( +23243) 241308 ( +9211)
Fri 05 June 2020 33354 ( +761) 623148 ( +23360) 250549 ( +9241)
Sat 06 June 2020 34088 ( +733) 646563 ( +23414) 259795 ( +9246)
Sun 07 June 2020 34792 ( +705) 669970 ( +23407) 269022 ( +9227)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 02 June 2020 7942 (+64) 157562 (+3117) 123077 (+2073)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 03 June 2020 7790 ( +27) 158392 ( +2171) 115554 ( +755)
Thu 04 June 2020 7816 ( +25) 160513 ( +2121) 116285 ( +731)
Fri 05 June 2020 7840 ( +24) 162580 ( +2066) 116993 ( +708)
Sat 06 June 2020 7862 ( +23) 164587 ( +2007) 117679 ( +685)
Sun 07 June 2020 7884 ( +21) 166531 ( +1944) 118342 ( +663)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.